Private Credit Australia: Is Your Client Ready for the Busy Half of 2026?

Private Credit Australia is entering an important period as businesses prepare for the second half of 2026. The Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 4.35% in June after three increases earlier this year. The next decision is due on 11 August, and the immediate probability of another rise is not overwhelming, but it is no longer a risk that business owners should dismiss. Funding markets can reprice before the RBA acts, rather than waiting for the formal announcement or lender terms are withdrawn.

ASX cash-rate futures currently imply about a 16% probability of a 25-basis-point increase in August. Economists are more cautious: 55% surveyed expect at least one further increase during 2026, and 62% of that group consider August the most likely timing. That equates to roughly one economist in three expecting a rise before September.

The deciding factor may be inflation. Annual CPI was still 4.0% in May, while trimmed mean inflation increased to 3.6%. The June inflation release is due on 29 July, less than two weeks before the RBA meeting. A stronger-than-expected result could quickly change market pricing, lender appetite and the cost of funds.

The Practical Message for Advisers

For advisers, the practical message is simple: funding should be arranged before it becomes urgent.

August to December is traditionally one of the busiest periods for private credit. Businesses enter the final months of the calendar year needing to fund stock, contracts, tax obligations, acquisitions, development costs, creditor settlements and seasonal working-capital requirements. At the same time, lenders face increased enquiry volumes and become more selective about transactions that require complexity, speed or higher leverage.

This is a good time for accountants, commercial brokers, introducers and lawyers to ask clients a direct question:

Do you need to bolster cash-flows by releasing equity from real property, or trade receivables or cashflows to strengthen the business, fund growth, manage a seasonal or economic downturn, or complete a restructuring?

Where Private Credit Can Help

A client may own substantial property equity, business balance sheet or trade receivable or but still be constrained by bank servicing models, covenant requirements, valuation delays or a credit policies that do not adequately recognise the underlying business’s opportunities. In those circumstances, a properly structured private-credit facility, or stack of facilities can provide time and liquidity without forcing an unnecessary asset sale or equity dilution.

Private credit should be flexible, rapid and effective. Much of the short-term property-secured or asset-secured market is quoted as a fixed all-in rate for the agreed term. With the RBA cash rate at 4.35%, competitive lower-risk first-mortgage pricing beginning around 8.75% represents approximately 440 basis points above cash, with pricing increasing for higher leverage, second mortgages, development risk, weaker locations or more complex exits.

A fixed rate gives the borrower certainty during the facility term. However, it does not mean future private-credit pricing is insulated from the RBA. Lenders continually reassess their own funding costs, target returns, risk margins and portfolio capacity. If official rates rise – or inflation causes credit conditions to tighten -the next facility may be more expensive, carry a lower approved LVR or require stronger conditions.

Funding Solutions Available

Semper Secured Investments provides and arranges funding across the capital structure, including:

• first and second mortgage loans secured by residential, commercial and industrial property;

• development and residual-stock finance;

• trade and transaction finance;

• unsecured business funding supported by receivables and identifiable cash flows; and

• blended capital stacks involving several facilities, lenders or security positions.

Semper’s experience is particularly valuable where the transaction involves multiple properties, related entities, trusts, shareholder interests, intercompany loans, competing securities or an ownership structure that does not fit a standard bank application.

The purpose is not simply to provide a loan. It is to identify the correct amount, structure, term, interest treatment and exit strategy so that the funding solves the immediate problem without creating the next one.

Why Early Engagement Matters

Clients should not wait for a rate rise or a December deadline to begin the conversation. Early engagement provides more choice, stronger negotiating leverage and enough time to assemble valuations, financial information, lease documents, debtor reports and a credible repayment strategy.

Speak with your clients now. A brief review of their property equity, receivables, upcoming commitments and growth plans may identify a funding requirement before it becomes a funding emergency.

Send Semper the essential transaction details and we will assess the available structure promptly and commercially.